I expect it sooner than most--at the very least, some local areas where demand is lower than average may make for easer shopping. This last weekend, three chains in my area all got stock at the same time instead of just one. If that's a one time thing, it won't change the status quo, but if it keeps up, Wiis will be easier to find soon. I certainly expect it sooner than 2009, but I've been wrong before. Repeatedly.
Stories full of hype continue to appear as mainstream outlets 'suddenly' discover the Wii and do a several month old story about it's unexpected success. Some people will buy it just because of the hype. But they may not be fans for long--they may not have reasonable expectations and may sour quickly. If they ever flood their systems on ebay, that could help supply catch up.
I don't really believe Nintendo is faking supply issues. The success of the Wii was greater than expected, and everyone from retailers to 3rd party developers were caught off guard.