Prediction: The Wii will hit the breaking point with casual and hardcore fans alike
The success of the Nintendo Wii caught everyone by surprise in 2007.
In the last generation, Nintendo hardware was embraced by Nintendo die-hards who picked up the system to play games developed in published by Nintendo. As a result, the company's 3rd-party relationships suffered. Eventually developers focused on the Xbox and Playstation 2, which in turn caused the hardcore Nintendo player-base to suffer.
The Wii changed everything by incorporating a new and innovative control scheme that felt fresh to casual gamers who hadn't picked up a controller since the original Nintendo Entertainment System. The press swooned over the system, prominently featuring Wii-related articles in lifestyle and entertainment sections in publications world-wide. Nintendo reaped the benefits, selling over 17 million consoles and posted record profits.
Despite all the revenue the Wii has generated for Nintendo, the system won't be as popular with gamers in 2008. The Wii will continue to be
Nintendo Wii Forum - Post New Threada success on Wall St., but that success will not translate over to the gamers that bought the system.
Hardcore Nintendo fans will be disappointed as the company continues to focus on the casual market. Just look at the recently released 2008 Wii line-up. Besides Super Smash Brothers Brawl, there just aren't that many innovative games to be excited for. Nintendo franchises will continue to trickle out at a very slow pace, forcing many fans and developers to jump ship.
Even casual fans will start to notice the lack of quality titles. Although Wii Fit to do well on the Oprah and Ellen circuit, the title will be the only game that most casual players buy for the Wii this year. The system's attach rate (the average number of games that are sold to each system owner) will continue suffer, and those figures won't be an encouraging sign for the 3rd party developers that shunned the GameCube last generation.