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  1. #1
    Let There Be Rock vashivihan's Avatar
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    Consoles to “die out” in the next 5 to 10 years

    The man who set up and ran the European Xbox business for Microsoft, Sandy Duncan, believes that consoles as we know them today will “die out” in the next 5 to 10 years.

    “The industry is fundamentally driven by technology. I think dedicated games devices i.e. consoles (and handhelds) will die [out] in the next 5 to 10 years. The business model is very risky and the costs associated with creating new hardware are incredibly high,” Duncan told That VideoGame Blog in an interview to be published tomorrow.

    He continued, “There is a definite “convergence” of other devices such as set top boxes. There’s hardly any technology difference between some hard disc video recorders and an Xbox 360 for example. In fact in 5 to 10 years I don’t think you’ll have any box at all under your TV, most of this stuff will be “virtualized” as web services by your content provider.”

    Duncan also believes that with the rapid rise of high-speed internet connections, and as game publishers are forced to adjust their business models, top publishers like EA may not be the same companies in 5 years time: “[Look] at how quickly Popcap or Oberon are growing, or look at what has happened to World of Warcraft in the last 3 to 4 years as so many more homes have easy access to decent broadband services. Maybe you’ll see YoYo Games competing with EA in 5 years… [and] why not ?”

    “Tying this thinking together I think that the concept of “Cloud Computing” when applied to games, and to MMORGS in particular is potentially pretty mind-blowing. If you look at the number of nodes, cumulative raw compute power, total storage etc. of just the people playing on Xbox Live at any one time, combined with very high bandwidth connectivity and add to that potentially millions of people playing on their mobile devices added to the cloud… then I think it might be time for the Blue Pill/Red Pill discussion and I’ll jump out of my skin if someone calls me up and says “Hello Sandy, my name is Morpheus!””

    Duncan was with Microsoft for over 15 years before moving on to found YoYo Games in with Michel Cassius. Check back tomorrow for the full second part (read Part I here) of our interview with Duncan where he goes in-depth about EA’s attempts to acquire Take-Two, the recent mergers in general, the rise of casual gaming, and where he thinks the industry is headed.
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  2. #2
    wii are cool!!!!! jimbo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by vashivihan
    3P1C PHA1L.
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  3. #3
    Ghost in the Shell Fan Inceptor's Avatar
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    Nice find.
    Better start saving my xbox 360, DS and wii, as I'll be able to sell them for millions in 20 years!

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  4. #4
    WiiChat Member WiitnessID's Avatar
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    I can see why a MS exec would believe this because every one is having a hard time staying excited about the xbox 360.

    He could be thinking of MS next system though which will maybe just be a wireless connection hub to your PC that connects to your TV. That would be cool I guess.

  5. #5
    The Good Doctor Robotnik's Avatar
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    I think the future will probably be an upgradable console. IE you purchase one console and just buy new internal hardware for it, etc, kinda like a computer. Of course the counter argument is the obvious-well people buy new computers, but eventually I think it'll get to a point where it'll be made easy to simply upgrade the current shell with new guts. Especially with the large costs microsoft and sony have had to absorb
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  6. #6
    Moderator FR.'s Avatar
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    Seeing the way the gaming industry is now, I can't see it "die out" in the next 5 - 10 years. I don't see why companies would want to end their line of consoles when they are making bucket loads of money off of them.

    The whole industry is a goldmine.
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  7. #7
    WiiChat Member Bliss's Avatar
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    I could see this happen...you guys arent lookin at it the way Sandy Duncan is. He is NOT saying gaming is comin to an end as many of u think he is. Also With Online play so sucessful and being able to download games via online, why not make it consoleless and play straight through ur tv. Like Sony says, the PS3 will no doubt last for 10 years. So after those 10 years then wat? I believe by that time it will be time to advance. I could see it happen.

  8. #8
    The Good Doctor Robotnik's Avatar
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    I always thought the real core of money was in the software and games. Wii is unique in its ability to actually make money from day one. Most consoles lose lots of money, then finally begin making money later in the console life. The money though is from selling games, and there will always be a market for that, no matter if there are consoles how we know them now or not.
    I am the Eggman. They are the Eggmen.

  9. #9
    Guru of everything Ninty wezeles's Avatar
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    It's more than possibal, and a cheeper route to go. With more and more people with DVR's and every console now support DLC just about everything entertainment wise we do is going in the direction of an on-demand download service. In the near future we will for sure have nothing more than a huge hard drive under the t.v with everything we ever want stored on it.

    Movies,Music,Games,News,Books,Pictures ect ect. all forms of entertainment has gone the direction of digital downloads over the last 10 years, eventually we will have a universal setup to use all these features, because they are quickly getting piled onto the same devices for our convience now.
    Look at cell phones you can get mp3's, movies,news, pictures,audio books,games all on one device. Alot even linked to you own home computer's information and almost all of them linked to the internet today.

    This has been said to be the future for some time now. It's cheeper way to distribute, less overhead, more profit. The probelm is the big entertainment companys will hurt because of this with no more physical media sales. You will see many smaller companys spur from this though and we will get much wider selections at much cheeper prices.

    Eventually you will have your computer as you information hub, your tv,movies,music,games linked to your DVR of some type for your entertainment hub. And your cell phone to be a smaller portable version of all of these. All of them being linked together in your own personal network, and all of the linked internationally through the interent aswell.
    With the onset of all the new radio waves freed up with the DTV switch we will have more than enough frequencys now to make this possibal. One large linked home system powered and supported by a download source.

    I would still say 10-15 years before this hits real hard. If you ever saw what the DTV swtich really does beyond HDTV you would see what I mean. Interactive menus, on-demand content all built right into the new standard t.v. stream. Same goes for the HD radio setup aswell. It may sound corny but all the 80's flicks and their view of the future is pretty much the way we are going.
    Last edited by wezeles; 03-28-2008 at 02:42 PM.


  10. #10
    WiiChat Member Bliss's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wezeles
    It's more than possibal, and a cheeper route to g. With more and more people with DVR's and every console now support DLC just about everything entertainment wise we do is going in the direction of an on-demand download service. In the near future we will for sure have nothing more than a huge hard drive under the t.v with everything we ever want stored on it.

    Movies,Music,Games,News,Books,Pictures ect ect. all forms of entertainment has gone the direction of digital downloads over the last 10 years, eventually we will have a universal setup to use all these features, because they are quickly getting piled onto the same devices for our convience now.
    Look at cell phones you can get mp3's, movies,news, pictures,audio books,games all on one device. Alot even linked to you own home computer's information and almost all of them linked to the internet today.

    This has been said to be the future for some time now. It's cheeper way to distribute, less overhead, more profit. The probelm is the big entertainment companys will hurt because of this with no more physical media sales. You will see many smaller companys spur from this though and we will get much wider selections at much cheeper prices.

    Eventually you will have your computer as you information hub, your tv,movies,music,games linked to your DVR of some type for your entertainment hub. And your cell phone to be a smaller portable version of all of these. All of them being linked together in your own personal network, and all of the linked internationally through the interent aswell.
    With the onset of all the new radio waves freed up with the DTV switch we will have more than enough frequencys now to make this possibal. One large linked home system powered and supported by a download source.

    I would still say 10-15 years before this hits real hard. If you ever saw what the DTV swtich really does beyond HDTV you would see what I mean. Interactive menus, on-demand content all built right into the new standard t.v. stream. Same goes for the HD radio setup aswell. It may sound corny but all the 80's flicks and their view of the future is pretty much the way we are going.
    exactly..damn wezeles, we gotta stop meetin at this damn supermarket

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