My gut feel says:
But I think there are a lot of factors to take into account. Support for games is everything, if anyone of Microsoft, Sony or Nintendo fail to get licenses for lots of games then they will fail, no matter how good the technology or funky the gameplay.
People ruling out the PS3 are not really looking at the big picture. If the PS3 stays around for 4-5 years then it is easily believable that it will outstrip the 360. The US has strong sales of the MS consoles, but both the Xbox and the 360 have struggled in Japan. The Wii will probably finish top, but it's a long long road. The first big test will come at christmas when (for the first time) all three consoles will go head to head worldwide.