Consoles to “die out” in the next 5 to 10 years

vashivihan · 03-28-2008, 09:05 AM

Quote:

The man who set up and ran the European Xbox business for Microsoft, Sandy Duncan, believes that consoles as we know them today will “die out” in the next 5 to 10 years.

“The industry is fundamentally driven by technology. I think dedicated games devices i.e. consoles (and handhelds) will die [out] in the next 5 to 10 years. The business model is very risky and the costs associated with creating new hardware are incredibly high,” Duncan told That VideoGame Blog in an interview to be published tomorrow.

He continued, “There is a definite “convergence” of other devices such as set top boxes. There’s hardly any technology difference between some hard disc video recorders and an Xbox 360 for example. In fact in 5 to 10 years I don’t think you’ll have any box at all under your TV, most of this stuff will be “virtualized” as web services by your content provider.”

Duncan also believes that with the rapid rise of high-speed internet connections, and as game publishers are forced to adjust their business models, top publishers like EA may not be the same companies in 5 years time: “[Look] at how quickly Popcap or Oberon are growing, or look at what has happened to World of Warcraft in the last 3 to 4 years as so many more homes have easy access to decent broadband services. Maybe you’ll see YoYo Games competing with EA in 5 years… [and] why not ?”

“Tying this thinking together I think that the concept of “Cloud Computing” when applied to games, and to MMORGS in particular is potentially pretty mind-blowing. If you look at the number of nodes, cumulative raw compute power, total storage etc. of just the people playing on Xbox Live at any one time, combined with very high bandwidth connectivity and add to that potentially millions of people playing on their mobile devices added to the cloud… then I think it might be time for the Blue Pill/Red Pill discussion and I’ll jump out of my skin if someone calls me up and says “Hello Sandy, my name is Morpheus!””

Duncan was with Microsoft for over 15 years before moving on to found YoYo Games in with Michel Cassius. Check back tomorrow for the full second part (read Part I here) of our interview with Duncan where he goes in-depth about EA’s attempts to acquire Take-Two, the recent mergers in general, the rise of casual gaming, and where he thinks the industry is headed.

3P1C PHA1L. linkage

jimbo · 03-28-2008, 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vashivihan

3P1C PHA1L.

AGREED

Inceptor · 03-28-2008, 11:50 AM

Nice find.
Better start saving my xbox 360, DS and wii, as I'll be able to sell them for millions in 20 years!

WiitnessID · 03-28-2008, 02:11 PM

I can see why a MS exec would believe this because every one is having a hard time staying excited about the xbox 360.

He could be thinking of MS next system though which will maybe just be a wireless connection hub to your PC that connects to your TV. That would be cool I guess.

Robotnik · 03-28-2008, 03:05 PM

I think the future will probably be an upgradable console. IE you purchase one console and just buy new internal hardware for it, etc, kinda like a computer. Of course the counter argument is the obvious-well people buy new computers, but eventually I think it'll get to a point where it'll be made easy to simply upgrade the current shell with new guts. Especially with the large costs microsoft and sony have had to absorb

FR. · 03-28-2008, 03:13 PM

Seeing the way the gaming industry is now, I can't see it "die out" in the next 5 - 10 years. I don't see why companies would want to end their line of consoles when they are making bucket loads of money off of them.

The whole industry is a goldmine.

Bliss · 03-28-2008, 03:27 PM

I could see this happen...you guys arent lookin at it the way Sandy Duncan is. He is NOT saying gaming is comin to an end as many of u think he is. Also With Online play so sucessful and being able to download games via online, why not make it consoleless and play straight through ur tv. Like Sony says, the PS3 will no doubt last for 10 years. So after those 10 years then wat? I believe by that time it will be time to advance. I could see it happen.

Robotnik · 03-28-2008, 03:28 PM

I always thought the real core of money was in the software and games. Wii is unique in its ability to actually make money from day one. Most consoles lose lots of money, then finally begin making money later in the console life. The money though is from selling games, and there will always be a market for that, no matter if there are consoles how we know them now or not.

wezeles · 03-28-2008, 03:28 PM

It's more than possibal, and a cheeper route to go. With more and more people with DVR's and every console now support DLC just about everything entertainment wise we do is going in the direction of an on-demand download service. In the near future we will for sure have nothing more than a huge hard drive under the t.v with everything we ever want stored on it.

Movies,Music,Games,News,Books,Pictures ect ect. all forms of entertainment has gone the direction of digital downloads over the last 10 years, eventually we will have a universal setup to use all these features, because they are quickly getting piled onto the same devices for our convience now.
Look at cell phones you can get mp3's, movies,news, pictures,audio books,games all on one device. Alot even linked to you own home computer's information and almost all of them linked to the internet today.

This has been said to be the future for some time now. It's cheeper way to distribute, less overhead, more profit. The probelm is the big entertainment companys will hurt because of this with no more physical media sales. You will see many smaller companys spur from this though and we will get much wider selections at much cheeper prices.

Eventually you will have your computer as you information hub, your tv,movies,music,games linked to your DVR of some type for your entertainment hub. And your cell phone to be a smaller portable version of all of these. All of them being linked together in your own personal network, and all of the linked internationally through the interent aswell.
With the onset of all the new radio waves freed up with the DTV switch we will have more than enough frequencys now to make this possibal. One large linked home system powered and supported by a download source.

I would still say 10-15 years before this hits real hard. If you ever saw what the DTV swtich really does beyond HDTV you would see what I mean. Interactive menus, on-demand content all built right into the new standard t.v. stream. Same goes for the HD radio setup aswell. It may sound corny but all the 80's flicks and their view of the future is pretty much the way we are going.

Bliss · 03-28-2008, 03:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wezeles

It's more than possibal, and a cheeper route to g. With more and more people with DVR's and every console now support DLC just about everything entertainment wise we do is going in the direction of an on-demand download service. In the near future we will for sure have nothing more than a huge hard drive under the t.v with everything we ever want stored on it.

Movies,Music,Games,News,Books,Pictures ect ect. all forms of entertainment has gone the direction of digital downloads over the last 10 years, eventually we will have a universal setup to use all these features, because they are quickly getting piled onto the same devices for our convience now.
Look at cell phones you can get mp3's, movies,news, pictures,audio books,games all on one device. Alot even linked to you own home computer's information and almost all of them linked to the internet today.

This has been said to be the future for some time now. It's cheeper way to distribute, less overhead, more profit. The probelm is the big entertainment companys will hurt because of this with no more physical media sales. You will see many smaller companys spur from this though and we will get much wider selections at much cheeper prices.

Eventually you will have your computer as you information hub, your tv,movies,music,games linked to your DVR of some type for your entertainment hub. And your cell phone to be a smaller portable version of all of these. All of them being linked together in your own personal network, and all of the linked internationally through the interent aswell.
With the onset of all the new radio waves freed up with the DTV switch we will have more than enough frequencys now to make this possibal. One large linked home system powered and supported by a download source.

I would still say 10-15 years before this hits real hard. If you ever saw what the DTV swtich really does beyond HDTV you would see what I mean. Interactive menus, on-demand content all built right into the new standard t.v. stream. Same goes for the HD radio setup aswell. It may sound corny but all the 80's flicks and their view of the future is pretty much the way we are going.

exactly..damn wezeles, we gotta stop meetin at this damn supermarket

Sovieto · 03-28-2008, 03:53 PM

hes saying this as everyone else in the gaming industry is talking about the dying computer industry?

JAKE196 · 03-28-2008, 04:52 PM

I don't get it. . .

EDIT: so all video games will become MMORPG's built into your TV. . . is that it?

somthin like that. . .

. . . .

I disagree.

wezeles · 03-28-2008, 05:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sovieto

hes saying this as everyone else in the gaming industry is talking about the dying computer industry?

Whats dieing about the computer industry? The computer is alive and well and in almost everythign we use today, down to the Cell phones we use, the GPS in our car, video game consoles, and the PC itself ha ha.
The computer isn't going anywhere. We might replace the PC with more user friendly interface over the years, but computers will never die, nor will gaming or any other entertainment source. Just the way we use it will change.

He isn't talking about gaming dieing off, he is talking about consoles dieing off. They will soon become nothing more than a HD with an internet connection to download games. Something that could eaisly be included in a universal DVR setup in the futre to store not just you games, but your movies,music and favorite t.v. shows aswell.

People will not be picking out a DVD/Console/STB/DVR systems anymore, he is saying in the futre this will all come in one box much like the PS3/360 attempt but on a much grander scale encompassing everything entertainment, not just the physical media sources with limited DLC like games and movies today. But one large hardrive with unlimited DLC of every kind.

In the future you will go out and buy your choice of the many "super boxs" and everything you toss on it be games,music,videos,tv, ect. will all be in a universal format and in the form of downloadable content that will work on any "super box". Movies,Games,Music will still be for sale but in digital format not physical, probably with the possability to transfer it from "super box to super box" with some type of re-writeable physical form like a memory card.

Although maybe not, this may be the place they make up for lost cash revenue in recent years with all the stolen "peer to peer" content today. With no physical media source and a tagged download "like the VC games that can't move to another console" the entertainment industry would be forced to change to full download content, but also get a boost back to what they use to be before people stole everything online. ha ha
I'm sure it could be cracked but honeslty only the most dedicated "pirate" would be willing to tackle the "superbox" and the 99% of other consumers would just start paying for everything again.

And my mom just learned how to used torrent sites, ha ha she would be pissed.

T3kNi9e · 03-28-2008, 05:05 PM

I think soviet is talking about PC gaming. Consoles have been more on par with PC's that people aren't buying games for PCs as much because of a few things. PC games can be downloaded via torrents for free, PC gaming computers are expensive and require lots of updating, and now days there are more developers working on consoles instead of PCs. This is why the "PC Gaming Alliance" has been formed. But some people disagree.

JAKE196 · 03-28-2008, 05:08 PM

I liek meh crap PC and me Wii!

I don't want to download stuff to my TV. . . .

Sovieto · 03-28-2008, 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wezeles

Whats dieing about the computer industry? The computer is alive and well and in almost everythign we use today, down to the Cell phones we use, the GPS in our car, video game consoles, and the PC itself ha ha.
The computer isn't going anywhere. We might replace the PC with more user friendly interface over the years, but computers will never die, nor will gaming or any other entertainment source. Just the way we use it will change.

He isn't talking about gaming dieing off, he is talking about consoles dieing off. They will soon become nothing more than a HD with an internet connection to download games. Something that could eaisly be included in a universal DVR setup in the futre to store not just you games, but your movies,music and favorite t.v. shows aswell.

People will not be picking out a DVD/Console/STB/DVR systems anymore, he is saying in the futre this will all come in one box much like the PS3/360 attempt but on a much grander scale encompassing everything entertainment, not just the physical media sources with limited DLC like games and movies today. But one large hardrive with unlimited DLC of every kind.

In the future you will go out and buy your choice of the many "super boxs" and everything you toss on it be games,music,videos,tv, ect. will all be in a universal format and in the form of downloadable content that will work on any "super box". Movies,Games,Music will still be for sale but in digital format not physical, probably with the possability to transfer it from "super box to super box" with some type of re-writeable physical form like a memory card.

Although maybe not, this may be the place they make up for lost cash revenue in recent years with all the stolen "peer to peer" content today. With no physical media source and a tagged download "like the VC games that can't move to another console" the entertainment industry would be forced to change to full download content, but also get a boost back to what they use to be before people stole everything online. ha ha
I'm sure it could be cracked but honeslty only the most dedicated "pirate" would be willing to tackle the "superbox" and the 99% of other consumers would just start paying for everything again.

And my mom just learned how to used torrent sites, ha ha she would be pissed.

idk have you been listening to anyone in the video game media talking about how games like WoW are just consuming everyone's time and money on the PC, thus theyre not buying much other games making the console look more attractive. (btw i only read the first 3 sentences of your post)

Subarnu · 03-28-2008, 05:21 PM

You guys are ignoring the fact that we control the market. "The business model is very risky and the costs associated with creating new hardware are incredibly high"
Risky because if their new "console" doesn't work then they are screwed.

strommsarnac · 03-28-2008, 05:26 PM

" In fact in 5 to 10 years I don’t think you’ll have any box at all under your TV, most of this stuff will be “virtualized” as web services by your content provider.”"

This I believe. LONG before Google released their "office" web apps, Microsoft had a version. I was a tester for Office-Online SEVEN years ago. Anytime I wanted to use Word, Excel, Powerpoint I simply went to a secure microsoft website and there they were.

It was Microsoft's plan that once broadband Internet hit an undisclosed saturation in the US, they would release it to the public. Cheap too, but a yearly subscriber rate. I think they were expecting $50/year. That would also allow for online storage and file transfers to other accounts. It worked VERY well, much smoother than Googles.

It would have been a win win for everyone involved, but sadly the FTC thought it would give MS too much power and told them NO. Funny that the FTC doesn't think that about Google. Another case of letting a small company get away with something they won't allow Microsoft to.

wezeles · 03-28-2008, 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sovieto

idk have you been listening to anyone in the video game media talking about how games like WoW are just consuming everyone's time and money on the PC, thus theyre not buying much other games making the console look more attractive. (btw i only read the first 3 sentences of your post)

Im sure you did, looks like you only read the first 3 sentences in the article aswell. This isn't an argument about PC vs. Console gaming. The point is twards the fact that Gaming in general is going to change. It's too costly to come up with new consoles every 5 to 6 years especailly when taken at a loss for the first couple years. When in the future the same thing can be done on a universal DVR with simple upgrades, and atleast when you do purchase a new "super box" you update your entire home network not just your video game console.

He also mentions how online games like some MMORGS games will continue to grow in popularity because of high speed internet connection being spread very quickly and widely among the world.

The article has nothing to do with one format of gaming being more popular. It is that the onset of new technology is going to change the way gaming is done all together, and the popularity of some games because of this spread of technology.

Try reading more than 3 sentences next time, no point commenting on an article if you don't read it or understand what it's saying.

Subarnu · 03-28-2008, 05:31 PM

^What is the FTC?
Interesting point.

03-28-2008, 11:50 AM	#3
Inceptor Ghost in the Shell Fan Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: UK Posts: 348 Friends: 0 0514-5507-8585-9222	Nice find. Better start saving my xbox 360, DS and wii, as I'll be able to sell them for millions in 20 years! __________________ <==========Thanks to Bliss for signature========> Join Ganondorf's Army PM Subarnu, Sparx or Inceptor to join Members: Spoiler Alert! Subarnu, Inceptor, Sparx, Lugia, 13ofHEARTS

03-28-2008, 03:05 PM	#5
Robotnik The Good Doctor Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: United States Posts: 141 Friends: 0	I think the future will probably be an upgradable console. IE you purchase one console and just buy new internal hardware for it, etc, kinda like a computer. Of course the counter argument is the obvious-well people buy new computers, but eventually I think it'll get to a point where it'll be made easy to simply upgrade the current shell with new guts. Especially with the large costs microsoft and sony have had to absorb __________________ I am the Eggman. They are the Eggmen.

03-28-2008, 03:13 PM	#6
FR. Moderator Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Connecticut Posts: 2,243 Friends: 3 4253-4708-4555-0363	Seeing the way the gaming industry is now, I can't see it "die out" in the next 5 - 10 years. I don't see why companies would want to end their line of consoles when they are making bucket loads of money off of them. The whole industry is a goldmine. __________________ 2008 Jaguar XKR Portfolio WiiChat Auto Enthusiast Forum Moderator - [PM]

03-28-2008, 03:28 PM	#8
Robotnik The Good Doctor Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: United States Posts: 141 Friends: 0	I always thought the real core of money was in the software and games. Wii is unique in its ability to actually make money from day one. Most consoles lose lots of money, then finally begin making money later in the console life. The money though is from selling games, and there will always be a market for that, no matter if there are consoles how we know them now or not. __________________ I am the Eggman. They are the Eggmen.

03-28-2008, 03:28 PM	#9
wezeles Guru of everything Ninty Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Michigan, USA Posts: 1,149 Friends: 1 6074-3351-1151-1701	It's more than possibal, and a cheeper route to go. With more and more people with DVR's and every console now support DLC just about everything entertainment wise we do is going in the direction of an on-demand download service. In the near future we will for sure have nothing more than a huge hard drive under the t.v with everything we ever want stored on it. Movies,Music,Games,News,Books,Pictures ect ect. all forms of entertainment has gone the direction of digital downloads over the last 10 years, eventually we will have a universal setup to use all these features, because they are quickly getting piled onto the same devices for our convience now. Look at cell phones you can get mp3's, movies,news, pictures,audio books,games all on one device. Alot even linked to you own home computer's information and almost all of them linked to the internet today. This has been said to be the future for some time now. It's cheeper way to distribute, less overhead, more profit. The probelm is the big entertainment companys will hurt because of this with no more physical media sales. You will see many smaller companys spur from this though and we will get much wider selections at much cheeper prices. Eventually you will have your computer as you information hub, your tv,movies,music,games linked to your DVR of some type for your entertainment hub. And your cell phone to be a smaller portable version of all of these. All of them being linked together in your own personal network, and all of the linked internationally through the interent aswell. With the onset of all the new radio waves freed up with the DTV switch we will have more than enough frequencys now to make this possibal. One large linked home system powered and supported by a download source. I would still say 10-15 years before this hits real hard. If you ever saw what the DTV swtich really does beyond HDTV you would see what I mean. Interactive menus, on-demand content all built right into the new standard t.v. stream. Same goes for the HD radio setup aswell. It may sound corny but all the 80's flicks and their view of the future is pretty much the way we are going. __________________ Last edited by wezeles; 03-28-2008 at 03:42 PM.


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03-28-2008, 02:11 PM	#4
WiitnessID WiiChat Member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 453 Friends: 0	I can see why a MS exec would believe this because every one is having a hard time staying excited about the xbox 360. He could be thinking of MS next system though which will maybe just be a wireless connection hub to your PC that connects to your TV. That would be cool I guess.

03-28-2008, 03:27 PM	#7
Bliss WiiChat Member Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 1,625 Friends: 29 0000-0000-0000-0000	I could see this happen...you guys arent lookin at it the way Sandy Duncan is. He is NOT saying gaming is comin to an end as many of u think he is. Also With Online play so sucessful and being able to download games via online, why not make it consoleless and play straight through ur tv. Like Sony says, the PS3 will no doubt last for 10 years. So after those 10 years then wat? I believe by that time it will be time to advance. I could see it happen.

03-28-2008, 03:53 PM	#11
Sovieto Banned Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 6,806 Friends: 0	hes saying this as everyone else in the gaming industry is talking about the dying computer industry? __________________ Everything in this signature except for this text was made by Wiired, he is my creator and almighty.

03-28-2008, 04:52 PM	#12
JAKE196 Cogito Ergo Sum Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Williamsburg, VA (U.S.A.) Posts: 1,726 Friends: 0	I don't get it. . . EDIT: so all video games will become MMORPG's built into your TV. . . is that it? somthin like that. . . . . . . I disagree. __________________ Wii games: Super Mario Galaxy, Metroid Prime 3, Resident Evil 4, Zelda TP, SSX: Blur, Excite Truck, The Godfather, and Mario Kart Wii PC games: Call of Duty 4, Halo 1, UT3, F.E.A.R., and The Orange Box. PS3 games: Ratchet and Clank F.T.O.D., Resistance 2, Wipeout HD, and MGS4. Last edited by JAKE196; 03-28-2008 at 04:54 PM.

03-28-2008, 05:05 PM	#14
T3kNi9e Conquistador Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Augusta, GA Posts: 2,233 Friends: 2	I think soviet is talking about PC gaming. Consoles have been more on par with PC's that people aren't buying games for PCs as much because of a few things. PC games can be downloaded via torrents for free, PC gaming computers are expensive and require lots of updating, and now days there are more developers working on consoles instead of PCs. This is why the "PC Gaming Alliance" has been formed. But some people disagree. __________________ Mod Edit: Image removed. Some users may find it offensive and inappropriate. SSBB FC: ????-????-???? (New Wii, so I gotta check) Gamertag: T3kNi9e Been playing alot of WarCraft III lately, anyone up for game? Just message me, my account is the same as here and GT.

03-28-2008, 05:08 PM	#15
JAKE196 Cogito Ergo Sum Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Williamsburg, VA (U.S.A.) Posts: 1,726 Friends: 0	I liek meh crap PC and me Wii! I don't want to download stuff to my TV. . . . __________________ Wii games: Super Mario Galaxy, Metroid Prime 3, Resident Evil 4, Zelda TP, SSX: Blur, Excite Truck, The Godfather, and Mario Kart Wii PC games: Call of Duty 4, Halo 1, UT3, F.E.A.R., and The Orange Box. PS3 games: Ratchet and Clank F.T.O.D., Resistance 2, Wipeout HD, and MGS4.

03-28-2008, 05:21 PM	#17
Subarnu Hand Springs Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Canada Posts: 636 Friends: 2 7584-1766-4453-7887	You guys are ignoring the fact that we control the market. "The business model is very risky and the costs associated with creating new hardware are incredibly high" Risky because if their new "console" doesn't work then they are screwed. __________________

03-28-2008, 05:26 PM	#18
strommsarnac WiiChat Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: USA, Central Ohio Posts: 260 Friends: 0	" In fact in 5 to 10 years I don’t think you’ll have any box at all under your TV, most of this stuff will be “virtualized” as web services by your content provider.”" This I believe. LONG before Google released their "office" web apps, Microsoft had a version. I was a tester for Office-Online SEVEN years ago. Anytime I wanted to use Word, Excel, Powerpoint I simply went to a secure microsoft website and there they were. It was Microsoft's plan that once broadband Internet hit an undisclosed saturation in the US, they would release it to the public. Cheap too, but a yearly subscriber rate. I think they were expecting $50/year. That would also allow for online storage and file transfers to other accounts. It worked VERY well, much smoother than Googles. It would have been a win win for everyone involved, but sadly the FTC thought it would give MS too much power and told them NO. Funny that the FTC doesn't think that about Google. Another case of letting a small company get away with something they won't allow Microsoft to. __________________ Central Ohio: Wii via component on Mitsu 55" HD-RPTV. 94 ImpalaSS, MCSE/MCT, MS/Network Consultant.

03-28-2008, 05:31 PM	#20
Subarnu Hand Springs Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Canada Posts: 636 Friends: 2 7584-1766-4453-7887	^What is the FTC? Interesting point. __________________

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