Consoles to “die out” in the next 5 to 10 years

vashivihan · 03-28-2008, 02:05 PM

Quote:

The man who set up and ran the European Xbox business for Microsoft, Sandy Duncan, believes that consoles as we know them today will “die out” in the next 5 to 10 years.

“The industry is fundamentally driven by technology. I think dedicated games devices i.e. consoles (and handhelds) will die [out] in the next 5 to 10 years. The business model is very risky and the costs associated with creating new hardware are incredibly high,” Duncan told That VideoGame Blog in an interview to be published tomorrow.

He continued, “There is a definite “convergence” of other devices such as set top boxes. There’s hardly any technology difference between some hard disc video recorders and an Xbox 360 for example. In fact in 5 to 10 years I don’t think you’ll have any box at all under your TV, most of this stuff will be “virtualized” as web services by your content provider.”

Duncan also believes that with the rapid rise of high-speed internet connections, and as game publishers are forced to adjust their business models, top publishers like EA may not be the same companies in 5 years time: “[Look] at how quickly Popcap or Oberon are growing, or look at what has happened to World of Warcraft in the last 3 to 4 years as so many more homes have easy access to decent broadband services. Maybe you’ll see YoYo Games competing with EA in 5 years… [and] why not ?”

“Tying this thinking together I think that the concept of “Cloud Computing” when applied to games, and to MMORGS in particular is potentially pretty mind-blowing. If you look at the number of nodes, cumulative raw compute power, total storage etc. of just the people playing on Xbox Live at any one time, combined with very high bandwidth connectivity and add to that potentially millions of people playing on their mobile devices added to the cloud… then I think it might be time for the Blue Pill/Red Pill discussion and I’ll jump out of my skin if someone calls me up and says “Hello Sandy, my name is Morpheus!””

Duncan was with Microsoft for over 15 years before moving on to found YoYo Games in with Michel Cassius. Check back tomorrow for the full second part (read Part I here) of our interview with Duncan where he goes in-depth about EA’s attempts to acquire Take-Two, the recent mergers in general, the rise of casual gaming, and where he thinks the industry is headed.

3P1C PHA1L. linkage

jimbo · 03-28-2008, 04:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vashivihan

3P1C PHA1L.

AGREED

Inceptor · 03-28-2008, 04:50 PM

Nice find.
Better start saving my xbox 360, DS and wii, as I'll be able to sell them for millions in 20 years!

WiitnessID · 03-28-2008, 07:11 PM

I can see why a MS exec would believe this because every one is having a hard time staying excited about the xbox 360.

He could be thinking of MS next system though which will maybe just be a wireless connection hub to your PC that connects to your TV. That would be cool I guess.

Robotnik · 03-28-2008, 08:05 PM

I think the future will probably be an upgradable console. IE you purchase one console and just buy new internal hardware for it, etc, kinda like a computer. Of course the counter argument is the obvious-well people buy new computers, but eventually I think it'll get to a point where it'll be made easy to simply upgrade the current shell with new guts. Especially with the large costs microsoft and sony have had to absorb

FR. · 03-28-2008, 08:13 PM

Seeing the way the gaming industry is now, I can't see it "die out" in the next 5 - 10 years. I don't see why companies would want to end their line of consoles when they are making bucket loads of money off of them.

The whole industry is a goldmine.

Bliss · 03-28-2008, 08:27 PM

I could see this happen...you guys arent lookin at it the way Sandy Duncan is. He is NOT saying gaming is comin to an end as many of u think he is. Also With Online play so sucessful and being able to download games via online, why not make it consoleless and play straight through ur tv. Like Sony says, the PS3 will no doubt last for 10 years. So after those 10 years then wat? I believe by that time it will be time to advance. I could see it happen.

Robotnik · 03-28-2008, 08:28 PM

I always thought the real core of money was in the software and games. Wii is unique in its ability to actually make money from day one. Most consoles lose lots of money, then finally begin making money later in the console life. The money though is from selling games, and there will always be a market for that, no matter if there are consoles how we know them now or not.

wezeles · 03-28-2008, 08:28 PM

It's more than possibal, and a cheeper route to go. With more and more people with DVR's and every console now support DLC just about everything entertainment wise we do is going in the direction of an on-demand download service. In the near future we will for sure have nothing more than a huge hard drive under the t.v with everything we ever want stored on it.

Movies,Music,Games,News,Books,Pictures ect ect. all forms of entertainment has gone the direction of digital downloads over the last 10 years, eventually we will have a universal setup to use all these features, because they are quickly getting piled onto the same devices for our convience now.
Look at cell phones you can get mp3's, movies,news, pictures,audio books,games all on one device. Alot even linked to you own home computer's information and almost all of them linked to the internet today.

This has been said to be the future for some time now. It's cheeper way to distribute, less overhead, more profit. The probelm is the big entertainment companys will hurt because of this with no more physical media sales. You will see many smaller companys spur from this though and we will get much wider selections at much cheeper prices.

Eventually you will have your computer as you information hub, your tv,movies,music,games linked to your DVR of some type for your entertainment hub. And your cell phone to be a smaller portable version of all of these. All of them being linked together in your own personal network, and all of the linked internationally through the interent aswell.
With the onset of all the new radio waves freed up with the DTV switch we will have more than enough frequencys now to make this possibal. One large linked home system powered and supported by a download source.

I would still say 10-15 years before this hits real hard. If you ever saw what the DTV swtich really does beyond HDTV you would see what I mean. Interactive menus, on-demand content all built right into the new standard t.v. stream. Same goes for the HD radio setup aswell. It may sound corny but all the 80's flicks and their view of the future is pretty much the way we are going.

Bliss · 03-28-2008, 08:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wezeles

It's more than possibal, and a cheeper route to g. With more and more people with DVR's and every console now support DLC just about everything entertainment wise we do is going in the direction of an on-demand download service. In the near future we will for sure have nothing more than a huge hard drive under the t.v with everything we ever want stored on it.

Movies,Music,Games,News,Books,Pictures ect ect. all forms of entertainment has gone the direction of digital downloads over the last 10 years, eventually we will have a universal setup to use all these features, because they are quickly getting piled onto the same devices for our convience now.
Look at cell phones you can get mp3's, movies,news, pictures,audio books,games all on one device. Alot even linked to you own home computer's information and almost all of them linked to the internet today.

This has been said to be the future for some time now. It's cheeper way to distribute, less overhead, more profit. The probelm is the big entertainment companys will hurt because of this with no more physical media sales. You will see many smaller companys spur from this though and we will get much wider selections at much cheeper prices.

Eventually you will have your computer as you information hub, your tv,movies,music,games linked to your DVR of some type for your entertainment hub. And your cell phone to be a smaller portable version of all of these. All of them being linked together in your own personal network, and all of the linked internationally through the interent aswell.
With the onset of all the new radio waves freed up with the DTV switch we will have more than enough frequencys now to make this possibal. One large linked home system powered and supported by a download source.

I would still say 10-15 years before this hits real hard. If you ever saw what the DTV swtich really does beyond HDTV you would see what I mean. Interactive menus, on-demand content all built right into the new standard t.v. stream. Same goes for the HD radio setup aswell. It may sound corny but all the 80's flicks and their view of the future is pretty much the way we are going.

exactly..damn wezeles, we gotta stop meetin at this damn supermarket

Sovieto · 03-28-2008, 08:53 PM

hes saying this as everyone else in the gaming industry is talking about the dying computer industry?

JAKE196 · 03-28-2008, 09:52 PM

I don't get it. . .

EDIT: so all video games will become MMORPG's built into your TV. . . is that it?

somthin like that. . .

. . . .

I disagree.

wezeles · 03-28-2008, 10:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sovieto

hes saying this as everyone else in the gaming industry is talking about the dying computer industry?

Whats dieing about the computer industry? The computer is alive and well and in almost everythign we use today, down to the Cell phones we use, the GPS in our car, video game consoles, and the PC itself ha ha.
The computer isn't going anywhere. We might replace the PC with more user friendly interface over the years, but computers will never die, nor will gaming or any other entertainment source. Just the way we use it will change.

He isn't talking about gaming dieing off, he is talking about consoles dieing off. They will soon become nothing more than a HD with an internet connection to download games. Something that could eaisly be included in a universal DVR setup in the futre to store not just you games, but your movies,music and favorite t.v. shows aswell.

People will not be picking out a DVD/Console/STB/DVR systems anymore, he is saying in the futre this will all come in one box much like the PS3/360 attempt but on a much grander scale encompassing everything entertainment, not just the physical media sources with limited DLC like games and movies today. But one large hardrive with unlimited DLC of every kind.

In the future you will go out and buy your choice of the many "super boxs" and everything you toss on it be games,music,videos,tv, ect. will all be in a universal format and in the form of downloadable content that will work on any "super box". Movies,Games,Music will still be for sale but in digital format not physical, probably with the possability to transfer it from "super box to super box" with some type of re-writeable physical form like a memory card.

Although maybe not, this may be the place they make up for lost cash revenue in recent years with all the stolen "peer to peer" content today. With no physical media source and a tagged download "like the VC games that can't move to another console" the entertainment industry would be forced to change to full download content, but also get a boost back to what they use to be before people stole everything online. ha ha
I'm sure it could be cracked but honeslty only the most dedicated "pirate" would be willing to tackle the "superbox" and the 99% of other consumers would just start paying for everything again.

And my mom just learned how to used torrent sites, ha ha she would be pissed.

T3kNi9e · 03-28-2008, 10:05 PM

I think soviet is talking about PC gaming. Consoles have been more on par with PC's that people aren't buying games for PCs as much because of a few things. PC games can be downloaded via torrents for free, PC gaming computers are expensive and require lots of updating, and now days there are more developers working on consoles instead of PCs. This is why the "PC Gaming Alliance" has been formed. But some people disagree.