With the Wii consistently selling out as soon as it hits store shelves, and the DS continuing to sell like hotcakes, 2007 was definitely Nintendo's year. According to Daniel Ernst of Hudson Square Research (whose fiscal 2009 outlook we also covered here and here), that momentum will carry Mario and co. right through 2008 as well.

For fiscal year 2008 (which ended this March), Sony sold 9 million PS3 units globally, Microsoft sold 9.5 million Xbox 360s and Nintendo sold 18.5 million Wiis. For fiscal year 2009 (ending next March), Ernst forecasts that Microsoft will sell 11.2 million units of the Xbox 360 worldwide, Sony will sell 12.5 million PS3s and Nintendo will sell 23 million Wiis.

"Microsoft got the jump on the industry with a one-year headstart, but nine months after its the launch, the Nintendo Wii overtook the Xbox 360 on a global basis. While the PS3, has struggled out of the gate, we note that since last fall, the console has been outselling the Xbox 360 in Europe, and in the first two months of this year has even outsold the Xbox 360 on its home turf, in the U.S. (In Japan, overtaking the Xbox 360 was almost immediate). With its strong slate of software scheduled for the coming year, we expect a material acceleration for the PS3 this year, but we believe the Wii will sell more than the PS3 and Xbox 360 combined this year," he commented.

With the DS dominating all hardware sales worldwide, the continued growth of the portable sector will also be a boon for Nintendo.

"With 69.8M Nintendo DSs and 38M Sony PSPs on the market vs. 24.3M Wii's; 20.6M Xbox 360's; and 12.6M PS3's, the addressable market for Portable Game systems is significantly greater than for Consoles," Ernst pointed out. "However, because the price points of portable systems are significantly lower than for consoles, total portable revenues account for just 28% of industry sales – masking the segment's greater contribution to earnings."

He continued, "Given that the development costs for a DS game can come in at less than $1M (vs. $15M to $30M for a next-gen console game), we believe the opportunity for profits in the portable market is significantly greater than the absolute size of the market suggests. Indeed, the DS and related software and royalties accounted for 63% of Nintendo's FY07 results and were the primary driver behind the company's 79% EPS growth in that year. Further... Nintendo platforms account for 69% of the portable market, and their 1st-party software accounts for over 70% of all software sold for DS/GBA portables, the benefits of the portable market have to date largely accrued to Nintendo."

Source

Pretty bold claims there, 2008 will be interesting no doubt. I think it will start to become more clear once June/July rolls around and more releases are revealed.

interestin

Wii probably will dominate this year, Microsoft really needs to pull out of the whole gaming industry in my opinion...

Dude nintendo get some $$$ off the DS lol pwnage

I hope Nintendo stays in gaming forever and ever i want my kids to play mario too!!!

nice work nintendo

I don't care about the ratings as long as they pull out the same great games, I will be loving it. But, they do need to summon up some big titles. Alike, Xbox 360 did with Gears of War and Halo

Well that was an easy call

They would dominate 2008 even if they stopped selling everything right now ha ha. It would take everyone else the rest of the year to catch up with Nintendo since it has been selling at a 2:1 ratio in consoles and handhelds for a while now.

About time though, it's been a few years since Nintendo has had the #1 slot for consoles. They needed the boost.

Unless Microsoft and Sony do price drops. Microsoft has to include the hard drive into their price drop formula. This June Sony is going back up to $500. Yeah! So freaking stupid. I don't care if the game is titled, "The second coming of Jesus." People aren't going to be thrilled enough to pay $500 for the package deal.

In short the Wii will utterly own them all if it price drops $100. It would be a killing blow to any console that doesn't price drop this year. If you haven't followed the economy recently, pull your head out of the sand.

Prediction total for end of 2008-
42-50 million Wii's
18-23 million PS3's
20-25 million 360's

CGAW, Wasnt this posted previously?
I swear i have read this before.

Next year is going to be fine but what we don't really know is what nintendo has planned for the hardcore yet or any one else for that matter. Also a lot of indies are looking at the Wii and really there is no competition for them on that platform.

All I know is Vanilla ware better get their game out!

Wii fit insures that even more casuals and gaming skeptics will buy one. Wii MKart will keep the brawl guys going but will the Wii ever get a god of war or a 2d version of gears that rocks like the new contra on the DS!

The HD gamers keep saying this or that game will cause sales to go up but no one is going out to buy a system like the retro gamers, casuals, and older people who grew up with nintendo or the pokemon or DS addicts. Simply put most gamers are buying these other systems simply because they want to continue where part 2 or 3 left off at. If some how they could get a similar game on the Wii with better than PS2 graphics then the Wii would win hands down.

I mean really I bought a PS2 just because some games simply didn't go to the GC or the xbox. After being able to actually afford high end PC gear lots of stuff starts looking gimped in the console market.

Yet I find it funny that the game play these days is just a bunch of realistic FPS these days. I'm looking forward to seeing how snake turns out yet I need more action in my games even if it is cartoony. The whole realistic sneaking things fails to me just because it gets so boring. Games like wipe out pure don't do so well on these HD systems. Weird because I would have said the same about PC gaming a while ago.

I think this article may be right because every one who has bought halo3, gears of war, resistance, or either they are just fans of a certain manufacture have already bought there systems. So games like GTA, metal gear and even HOME and LBP may not have the impact that people expect.

I remember a similar thing happing with manga and anime. The people who could find the cool stuff loved it yet every one else just looked at them like why do you like this? Then years later it's all you see younger kids drawing! I think the HD systems are the pilot to a great 2nd gen HD round soon to come. I'm sure the Wii will have an effect on that out come also. Which would be good because 8800 graphics with fun games would be sweet! Don't get me wrong but HD gaming does look good but it's still laking a little. New tech is gonna have to drive down HD tv prices also for the tech to become more relevant.

I wonder how GTA is going to fair with the owners of the HD systems though.

Brawl has almost sold more copies than Gears of War in far less time. Wiiplay has sold more copies than all PS3 top ten games combined! The sales figures for the Wii are staggering. Imagine the insane sales surge if they dropped another $100 off the price tag? Yes I'm repeating, because it hasn't sunk in yet. The Wii is killing them.

i thought wii was suppose to dominate 2007.. or was that ps3? no, it was both said to dominate 2007, so here comes the next yearly wave of "[insert either wii or ps3] will dominate this year" articles.

Wait Wii did dominate 2007.. ha ha
It outsold 360's 2 year numbers in 1 year, and sold more than double the PS3 in the same time frame...

They did lag behind on software sales, but then again all of them have done bad in the first year because of the launch games they offered. Now even with still very few "good games" to the console in comparison, it is outselling the others software wise as well.

If you compare any of them side by side year to year Wii has yet to be beaten by anyone. Amazing considering the bad rap the "hardcore" market try to put on the Wii.

What the hell? Why?

I don't get it eaither, Microsoft is doing great. They have the Hardcore Market cornered and give them everthing they want with plenty of exclusive games. It May not end up being on top but what they do they do well and they sell more than enough to stay in this buisness.

If anything PS3 needs to pick up the pace. Sony is a veteran at gaming yet they seem to be making nothing but mistakes this time around.
Give us the goods and keep them comming. With Microsoft taking the majority of "hardcore" dollars, Sony has to look more at the casual,newbies, and Sony fan base. They will be perfect competition for Nintendo once they get their act together and stop trying to be the all holy elite system, no one will ever get that status.