http://www.forbes.com/2008/05/02/wii...rss_popstories

BURLINGAME, CALIF. -

Since the launch of the Nintendo Wii videogame console in November of 2006, the Japanese videogame company had not missed a beat. That is, until the release of Grand Theft Auto IV this week.

Analysts are predicting that Take-Two Interactive Software (nasdaq: TTWO - news - people ) will make $400 million this week on sales of 6 million copies of the crime-drenched videogame. Microsoft (nasdaq: MSFT - news - people ) is eager to exploit the game, paying $50 million in advance royalties for the right to release exclusive content online. The title also promises to revive interest in the Playstation 3 gaming console, with game critics saying the game looks sharper on Sony's (nyse: SNE - news - people ) console. But the game is a bust for Nintendo (other-otc: NTDOY.PK - news - people ): not a single copy of the game will be played on the Nintendo Wii.

There's more to come: "It's one of a series of good games that will each convince consumers that there is a lot of good content on the other two boxes," Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter says.

How many gaming consoles do you need? Could Grand Theft Auto IV put a chink in the Wii's armor? Or will the Nintendo Wii continue to stomp the Playstation 3 and XBox 360? Share your thoughts in our Reader Comments section below.

Early on, some industry analysts predicted trouble for Nintendo (other-otc: NTDOY.PK - news - people ): The Wii had a relatively pokey processor, it lacked a hard drive, its controls were unusual. Two years ago, developer Chris Hecker took those whispers into the open, when he uncorked a rant at the Game Developers Conference in San Francisco, claiming the Wii was nothing more than a pair of Gamecubes held together with duct tape. (At least he picked the right venue: The session was called "Burning Mad: Game Developers Rant".) Hecker has since apologized, and his personal Web site says of the matter "please don't ask me about it, thanks."

Yet even though the Wii seemed to lack the muscle that so many other gaming platforms hoped to build up, plenty of consumers fell in love with the console. In a relatively short time, the Wii elevated Nintendo from worst to first in the game console market. Wii sales in the United States now outstrip the combination of Sony's (nyse: SNE - news - people ) Playstation 3 and Microsoft's (nasdaq: MSFT - news - people ) XBox 360. Since releasing the Wii, Nintendo shares have surged more than 165%.

Even game developers who once spurned the Wii have reversed course and are now pumping out Wii titles. Microsoft is reportedly even developing a motion-sensitive knockoff of the Wii's controller. That, no doubt, will make it easier to port some of the flurry of games built for the Wii to the XBox.

The problem is, it could get tougher and tougher to go the other way. It's hard to imagine how the sprawling world of Grand Theft Auto IV--which already taxes the multicore processors powering the XBox and Playstation--could be recreated on the Wii. Bloggers have caught on, some complaining about the plethora of bad games for the platform.

The advantages of the Playstation 3 and Xbox 360 go beyond just rich, immersive games. "If [gamers] care more about high-definition, or they care about online, or they care about more graphically rich immersive games, they're going to consider a 360 or Playstation 3," Pachter asserts.

Sony's victory in the next-generation videodisc format wars is a formidable advantage, Pachter argues. Grab a high-definition television at Best Buy (nyse: BBY - news - people ), and the salespeople will recommend that consumers--even non-gamers--buy Sony's console so that they can play high-definition movies on their new displays. "That's going to move consoles, maybe not today, but it will cumulatively over time," Pachter says. (See: How To Get the Best (and Cheapest) BluRay Player.)

Microsoft, meanwhile, has invested heavily to create a best-in-class online experience to hook gamers.

By contrast, Nintendo's online experience is safe, yet spartan. That means Microsoft's deal with Take-Two for exclusive online content is just the start. "They're certainly not stupid, they're going to push online content like you wouldn't believe," Pachter says.

Wii won't die, for sure. But Grand Theft Auto IV may have just given a new lease on life to the Playstation 3.

That was a very interesting find, and i dont thin kthe Wii is really threatened by GTA but we can only see when the sales come up soon.

meh, i thought the new gta was okay. The game is like the rest of gta's, so it get's repetitive after a while. I played the online DM and it was fun for about 30 mins, being able to see where everyone is on your radar doesnt give you any cover. But it's a good game, i dont think it will be system changing though.

Sorry but one game won't hurt the Wii, Wii Fit will build back any interest lost.. like it or not Wii Fit will be huge.

now imo gta4 wat i heard it is great well excellent but now i think gta didnt effect nintendo. now nintendo is going to try harder to fight with that 10/10 ign score, they can do it but they are holding back or waiting but at E3 this year that big suprise (probably zelda) if done right can pull gamers back and even wii fit can do that but u just need to think about it thats how the market runs so nintendo shouldnt worry ssbb and mk both can match gta but we need something bigger!!!! any comments

LIKE MEGAMAN! lol jk. yeah i totaly agree with u

GTAIV is just making everybody shit their pants because it's another GTA. People will always go bonkers for GTA. People need to accept that. But I don't think the Wii will be damaged by it.

pfffft, did the release of halo 3 make the 360 sell more total consoles than the wii? no.

Microsoft already threw their secret weapon at Nintendo (Halo 3) so if that shows anything GTA isn't going to effect the Wii stranglehold much at all. It might make the PS3 a bit more popular though.

It sure does have the ability to "threaten" the Wii, but Wii is above threats, it ignores them completely.


(much like Chuck Norris)

The release of Halo 3 for XBOX in September of 2007 definitely helped Microsoft, but it certainly didn't hurt Wii.

XBOX doubled it's sales of consoles from August to September, and finally outsold Wii (527,800 to 501,000), but Wii has been consistently selling between 350,000 and 750,000 every month since it's release. XBOX and Sony's Playstation 3 has been consistently selling around 250,000 each month.

So yeah, Halo 3 bumped XBOX's sales for September (and October) for 2007, but Nintendo still sold their usual number of Wii's. I expect the same for the release of GTAIV -- PS3 will have a bump, but not many will buy PS3 over a Wii because of it.

On a side note, Wii sold 721,000 consoles in March of 2008, compared to 262,000 for XBOX and 257,000 for PS3. So yeah, Halo 3's effect didn't last long.

Good point, and once Wii Fit is released the GTA IV craziness could die down much more than before, at least to the point of it "harming" the Wii. Nintendo made a good move releasing and making Wii Fit, and the summer and coming months will be good times to be a Wii owner no doubt. I don't remember enjoying or playing as many great things on Gamecube (and I loved Gamecube) as I do now with Wii.

we survived the release of Halo 3

we'll do fine on the GTA4 release too

If GTA4 existed in Wii form I might buy it. But I already have more games I want to play right now than I have free hours in the day. So I'm not going to lose any sleep nor cry any tears just because some out-of-touch developer can't be bothered to develop for the most-popular console out. They don't deserve my money in that case.

GTA4 might be a bit of a boost to PS3, but how many people actually ran out and bought a PS3 over an XBox just because of slightly prettier graphics for one game? We'll see what the numbers are at the end of the month but I'm betting that GTA4 sales for both consoles will be pretty close. So in all maybe a small temporary hit for the Wii until Wii Fit comes out but since it's spread between two different competing consoles, Wii will still win out.

And at the end of the year, I'm betting the numbers will still say Wii outsold everything else. Again. It's not all about extra-pretty graphics.

I hope Wii stands strong. I hate GTA. Parents dont know that kids are killing cops to steal their money, torchering elders, and making out with chicks that dont even exist. Rockstar games are a shitty example for kids. I am not a parent, I am 13. I turn down games like that.

And Ninty and there freinds has plenty of other ideas to make MS and Sony sucky. MK Wii, SSBB, Metroid Prime, Wii Fit, and hopefully the upcoming Conduit will kick console ass.