Wii Sucessor Due by 2011?

iOwnage · 10-09-2008, 05:49 PM

Quote:

What They Play has heard from multiple sources in the game development and publishing community that Nintendo is currently showing early presentations of its next home console hardware. Apparently set to hit the market “by 2011” the new device is said to be the true “next generation” Nintendo console, and far more than a simple refresh of the current hardware. Unlike previous console transitions from Nintendo, the new system will be presented as a true successor to the Wii, and is being dubbed by those that have seen the presentation as “Wii HD.” There is no indication if this will be its eventual name, but the nature of the transition has been characterized as similar to “the shift from Game Boy to Game Boy Advance,” where familiar, key elements were left intact while the core hardware was made more powerful. It is expected by all those that we have spoken to on the subject that the new device will retain the Wii name in part.

While our sources are reluctant to be too specific about “Wii HD,” they have been able to divulge some (albeit predictable) generalizations. High definition visuals are assured, as is a greater emphasis on digitally distributed and backwardly compatible content, indicating that the new system will feature some form of local storage medium such as a hard drive or large flash memory solution. It has also been indicated that Nintendo’s emphasis is again on what the consumer will hold in their hands and interact with, rather than the “console” itself.

Nintendo has proven it can be extremely successful by leveraging processor technology that is not on the bleeding edge, and be more profitable and more innovative as a result. In a 2006 interview with Business Week, Nintendo visionary Shigeru Miyamoto stated, “The consensus [at Nintendo] was that power isn't everything for a console. Too many powerful consoles can't coexist. It's like having only ferocious dinosaurs. They might fight and hasten their own extinction.” Based on our conversations about “Wii HD” this attitude would seem to still prevail.

But why should you believe this? Everything stated so far could easily have been the result of educated guesswork or speculation. While a Nintendo representative provided the expected response that, “Nintendo does not comment on speculation or rumor,” there is additional evidence, outside this commentary, to suggest that something is going on.

Based on figures from Nintendo’s annual financial reports, the company is currently spending more than ten times as much on research and development as it was five years ago, and since the Wii was launched in 2006, R&D spending has more than tripled. While this could be attributed to any number of additional projects, the level of spending suggests that a large project is in the works. In 2003, Nintendo declared that $34 million was spent on R&D. This figure steadily climbed to $103 million in 2006 (the year that the Wii launched) and the following year bumped dramatically to $370 million. When asked to explain the escalated spending, Nintendo representatives were unable to provide comment.

The current Wii hardware is based upon processors and graphics technology supplied by IBM and AMD. These two companies have a joint development agreement together, which is described by AMD as being focused “on delivering a range of integrated platforms to serve key markets, including … gaming and media computing.”

The joint development agreement between IBM and AMD expires on December 31, 2011 but “may be extended further by the mutual agreement of the parties.” This suggests that Nintendo will be leveraging research and development from the partnership in time to ensure that it’s new hardware will be compatible with the Wii’s current “Hollywood” and “Broadway” processors. As Microsoft learned in the transition from Xbox to Xbox 360, switching hardware vendors can make running older games on a new system a much more difficult proposition.

The dramatic bump in spending at Nintendo may also be reflective of Nintendo’s work on a rumored new DS, said to feature a camera and music player. Iterating on the DS in 2009 would certainly shake up the market, though given the incredible monthly sales of the device it hardly needs reinvigorating for the time being. When the Nintendo DS was launched in 2004, the worldwide installed base of the Game Boy Advance was 53 million (on top of the Game Boy’s incredibly huge 118 million.) So far, 80 million Nintendo DS units have been sold worldwide, and demand shows no sign of slowing.

It is unlikely that any official acknowledgement of Nintendo’s new hardware will come until at least 2009, however company president Satoru Iwata will be delivering his annual fall presentation this Wednesday.

UPDATE: Nintendo has now announced it's brand new NIntendo DSi, which features a 3 megapixel camera. We have more news about it here.

I guess it sounds good, but this console most likely won't match up to the new Microsoft console, which is also bound to be out by this time.

LINK

George · 10-09-2008, 06:36 PM

Wow. Sounds great.

FoxRox · 10-09-2008, 06:41 PM

Do you think its possible to have the same success that the Wii has had just by upgrading to "Wii HD"? I seriously doubt it. The "casual" audience that Nintendo has fallen in love with may not be willing to upgrade to a new console every 4 years. I'd be willing to bet that if a new console comes out in 2011, nintendo and developers will continue to support the original Wii for a long period into the next consol's lifetime.

Just My 2 Cents.

sremick · 10-09-2008, 07:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iOwnage

I guess it sounds good, but this console most likely won't match up to the new Microsoft console, which is also bound to be out by this time.

So? It's not meant to "match up". Just as the Wii wasn't meant to "match up" to the Xbox 360.

Quote:

Originally Posted by FoxRox

Do you think its possible to have the same success that the Wii has had just by upgrading to "Wii HD"? I seriously doubt it.

Why not? There'll always be a market for a console that costs considerably less than the others out on the market. There'll always be a consumer market interested more in "fun" and "convenience" than "latest and greatest hardware no matter what the cost".

Quote:

The "casual" audience that Nintendo has fallen in love with may not be willing to upgrade to a new console every 4 years.

Why do you assume the only people buying the next Nintendo console will be people who already own a Wii? And besides... a new $250 console every 4 years is a lot better than a new $700 console every 4 years, and still falls within the same "casual" market. Many people upgrade their $200 iPods more-often than that.

Quote:

I'd be willing to bet that if a new console comes out in 2011, nintendo and developers will continue to support the original Wii for a long period into the next consol's lifetime.

For a while at least, sure. But not sure about "long period". Probably on-par to how long games continued to be released for the PS2 after the PS3 came out.

CantGetAWii · 10-09-2008, 08:36 PM

Based on outdated Wii we will feel to gamers and developers come 2010 even, I can see them having no problem buying a new console/developing for a new console.

And by the sounds of Wii HD, it's sure to be a hit. It'll have to do more for me than just more memory and better visuals (which are two things I could care less about really on Wii right now). It's the same with Microsoft and Sony, what way are they going to be going? Next-gen will be hard for me to decide, especially considering I'm happy with my 360 and Wii at the moment.

linuxghost · 10-09-2008, 08:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sremick

So? It's not meant to "match up". Just as the Wii wasn't meant to "match up" to the Xbox 360.

Why do you assume the only people buying the next Nintendo console will be people who already own a Wii? And besides... a new $250 console every 4 years is a lot better than a new $700 console every 4 years, and still falls within the same "casual" market. Many people upgrade their $200 iPods more-often than that.

1.) Yes it is. A quick glance at any "videogame sales chart" on the entire planet pitting Wii, 360, and PS3 games against each other directly proves this.

2.) Uhh, what console costs $700, exactly?

sremick · 10-09-2008, 09:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by linuxghost

1.) Yes it is. A quick glance at any "videogame sales chart" on the entire planet pitting Wii, 360, and PS3 games against each other directly proves this.

Please explain what a 3rd-party random website's "video game sales chart" has to do with Nintendo's actual marketing plan? I can make a chart comparing the sales of Porsches to Ninjas (motorcycles) but that doesn't mean that they're competing with one other.

Having things available for sale at the same time doesn't mean they're in direct competition. It's been gone over in countless threads over the years that the market that Nintendo is aiming for with the Wii is radically different that the market of the XBox 360 and Playstation 3. Some website doesn't define what Nintendo is "pitting" the Wii against. Nintendo does.

Quote:

2.) Uhh, what console costs $700, exactly?

I was referring to the original sell price of $600 for the PS3.

FoxRox · 10-09-2008, 11:36 PM

The only point I was trying to get across is that the Wii console has enjoyed great success, a very large portion of which is due to the mom/dad/granny/grandpa purchases. Many people only bought the Wii for novelty value.

100% of Wii owners I know over 40 rarely ever turn on their Wii. I know that has to be a significant portion of wii owners. I would say that the chance of one of these people going out and getting the new Wii is less than i hope it is.

When it comes to prices, I didn't realize they've already listed the prices for the new consoles.

gpoleweski · 10-09-2008, 11:52 PM

Heh, well here, PS3s are still $600 to $700.
Lol, Ninjas.
I agree they would have to actually get the 3rd party pricks into making good games instead of just fancy visuals, which although is nice, doesn't make a game any better than what it could be with a storyline.

GigaRidley · 10-10-2008, 12:05 AM

Well, I'm excited. I'm totally buying this, as long as it's backwards compatible with Gamecube and Wii games... I have too many for this not to affect me if it doesn't. I'd personally like to see The same innovation I've come to expect from Nintendo, along with a graphical leap (but mostly the innovation).
Nintendo won't let us down. The Wii and DS have proven that for me.

MakaiZomby · 10-10-2008, 12:24 AM

This is just an 'out there' question, but say Nintendo DID come out with a 2011 console...or a 2015 console, whatever... do you think they'd be kind enough to carry over VC games to the successors? Surely Nintendo knows by now that they can bank on the retro games and all but at the same time I wouldn't double take something like the thought of carrying over old games without thinking twice.

ganjaman · 10-10-2008, 01:02 AM

this i how i see it
wii = casual gamers
wii HD = hardcore gamers

when the wii hd comes out people will still be buying the standed wii because old people and little kids like them casual games
btw i'm not just saying the wii is for casual gamers i'm very happy with the current wii after the conduit comes out alot more hardcore games will come
hurry up wii hd

sagema · 10-10-2008, 03:12 AM

They probably won't bring a new console until Microsoft or Sony rush out their new consoles. Don't believe me? Look at the DS. How long as that been on the market? Now look at the Gamecube, it did awful, and had one of the shortest console lifespans to date. If the Wii remains successful, business wise it would make no sense at all to rush out a new console. Nintendo is going to squat this console for some time.

How long? I learned long ago people like guessing. Does that mean they are right. Hell no. Take this tale with a pound of salt. Let time determine the outcome.

linuxghost · 10-10-2008, 09:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ganjaman

this i how i see it
after the conduit comes out alot more hardcore games will come

Don't count on it.

FoxRox · 10-10-2008, 10:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MakaiZomby

do you think they'd be kind enough to carry over VC games to the successors?

I could be wrong, but it think that they have already established that your VC games WILL indeed carry over. What you paid for is similar to a "license" to play the game forever. So you are actually purchasing the right to play (even if you already paid for the original physical copy of the game).

Godwind · 10-10-2008, 11:37 PM

Why does everyone have to assume it will be called the Wii? This new mythical Wii sounds like it was intended for hardcore gamers. Doesn't that stand against what the Wii was about? The name Wii is symbolic of what it was intended. To bring people together. The two i's in the name "wii" is suppose to represent two people. The name wii is intended to sound like "we", to pluralize. Even in the commercials, you have two japanese businessmen going door to door saying "Wii would like to play."

Quote:

Originally Posted by sagema

They probably won't bring a new console until Microsoft or Sony rush out their new consoles. Don't believe me? Look at the DS. How long as that been on the market? Now look at the Gamecube, it did awful, and had one of the shortest console lifespans to date. If the Wii remains successful, business wise it would make no sense at all to rush out a new console. Nintendo is going to squat this console for some time.

How long? I learned long ago people like guessing. Does that mean they are right. Hell no. Take this tale with a pound of salt. Let time determine the outcome.

I will it as you said, with a gain of salt. Why are waiting for the new system in such a short time? I think this points out that the Wii is doing poorly in terms of delivering lasting and strong game lineup. I liked my Gamecube more than my wii when the gamecube was new. Nintendo being the underdog forced nintendo to deliver a strong line-up of games.

gpoleweski · 10-11-2008, 12:09 AM

What? 5 years is a normal lifespan for any console. And let them think what they wanna think about the new Nintendo console being called the Wii HD or whatever, it's their opinion and their thoughts. Just like alot of people could argue that they like their Wiis more than their Gamecubes,

There's also no 'hardcore'...where do you get that idea from? Because they have flashy graphics and better controls and all that? Hardcore is a stupid word to describe yourself as, I'm a 'serious' gamer would make more sense and not sound like you were in a porno./rant