Who Will Lead In 2008?

[CantGetAWii]

As is traditional at this time of year I will try and give some pointers to what I think may happen over the next twelve months. Firstly, let’s look at the current situation.

According to VG Chartz there are now 8.71 million Sony (SNE) PS3s sold to end users, whilst the Microsoft (MSFT) Xbox 360 has sold nearly twice as many at 16.02 million, but has been overtaken by the Nintendo (NTDOY.PK) Wii with 19.45 million.

All three of these are dwarfed by ownership of the Nintendo DS which has 64.92million happy owners, far more than the three previous machines combined. The PSP continues to sell with 29.79 million but most of these are used as media players, not as gaming machines.

Sony PS3 sales were given a big kick by the price reduction, despite the lack of AAA exclusives on the machine. This year sees massive system sellers such as Metal Gear Solid 4 and LittleBigPlanet which at long last will give the PS3 credibility and make it a worthwhile purchase.

The delayed Playstation Home has the potential to be huge. Unlike Xbox Live this is geared up very much to be an online social networking community and we all know how big they can become. Sony should recover their position a lot during 2008, they need to with the amount of money this is costing them.

Microsoft have already pulled off what may well be the biggest marketing coup of 2008. Grand Theft Auto IV on the 360 is going to have a lot of exclusive downloadable content that the PS3 won’t have. Considering that this will certainly be the biggest game of the year, this exclusive content will swing a lot of buying decisions over to 360. Other than this, Microsoft have more games coming out for the 360 than Sony has for the PS3 and a lot of room to use the price mechanism to maintain their market position.

The Nintendo Wii could very well be a bubble that is already bursting, or it could build on the existing solid base to become an entertainment phenomenon. Wii Fit will keep the impetus going through Q1&2 whilst Animal Crossing will be massive in Q4. These alone will probably be insufficient to keep the impetus going, so Nintendo need some AAA third party titles. Nintendo like to upgrade their hardware, so we could see an enhanced Wii with, for instance, a hard drive. Also a more powerful HD console must be on the way.

The DS for Nintendo threatens to become a ubiquitous device like the Walkman was for Sony. This year should see another upgrade with bigger screens. Nintendo are perfectly placed to make a telephone version (with a partner like, say, NEC (NIPNY)?) which could deal a huge blow to both Nokia (NOK) and Apple (AAPL).

What is certain is that this generation is still in its infancy. There are still over 130 million owners of last generation consoles who have yet to upgrade (mainly PS2 owners waiting to see if the PS3 will be worth buying). If you add in the constant growth of the market and the popularizing effect of the Wii, then there could easily be a market for a further 200 million home consoles in this generation. Four and a half times more than have been sold to date.

A big factor this generation will be multiple machine ownership, to a far higher level than in previous generations. This is because there are so many 'must have' games that are platform exclusives. This means that the real war between Microsoft and Sony will increasingly be fought between Xbox Live and Playstation Home. So expect both companies to put a lot of effort into these online platforms.

A big tactic this generation has been to stratify each console into a product range and to bundle games with consoles to give higher perceived value (something that was overdone in the days of the Commodore Amiga and Atari ST). Expect this to be continued this year with top end versions of the 360 and PS3 featuring large hard drives and enticing bundles of AAA games.

That is a very quick overview. It is impossibly to say who will do best out of the three. This generation of consoles is spectacularly good at making analyst’s predictions look stupid. One major change that has emerged is that Microsoft are now a player at the top table in the console industry. Just watching how they use this new found position will be fascinating.

Source:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/59250-sony-microsoft-or-nintendo-who-will-lead-video-gaming-in-2008

 

[wezeles]

Like all other Analyst he underestimates the power of nintendo's own 1st and 2nd party games, Thinking they need 3rd party games at all to sell to the casual gamer thats made it so big...and skipping the fact that having a controlling market share will pull in the 3rd party games to nintendo now just because of being in the lead...

Just like last years analyst he will end up putting his foot in his mouth in 2009 about nintendo... after a year they all still keep saying the same thing ,they need a few gigs of memory and HDTV to compete, "they need to upgrade the wii"
Hmm? the fastest selling video game console in history needs to change something?... i cant believe people get paid for some of this garble...


besides that i tend to agree with him...

360 has a very solid base and i dont see there numbers dropping at all... they will keep going at the same pace and probably have spurts of speed with top titled game launches, they will deffinatley be in the top 2, nintendos only real competitor at this time...

ps3 im still a little leary on... They are still to pricey for most gamers...and dont have enough exclusive game support to make a differance...
and without something really Big or intresting to get the sales, i dont think they will boost up any higher trend in sales than 360 has experienced... they will stay the same pace as 360 "aslong as they keep the price drops comming", but they will continue to be over a year behind the 360... leaving them in last place...

i honestly think they should remarket the ps3 more as the Family Entertainment System... a blueray player to match DAD's HDTV, a top of the line game system to keep the kids happy.
maybe even rush out the eye toy with its fantastic new interactivness we've been hearing about... that might be enough so that it can compete with the casual gamers market that nintendo has already taken, and that sony is so quickly loosing this round...

 

[largedarry]

^
^
I couldn't have said it better myself. Everything sounds good except he doesn't seem to mention anything about the Wii having the greatest exclusive game developer there is right now.

 

[kalmondo]

as far as DS goes, yeah, it kiks but, that is never going to change. None can knock Nintendo out of hand held supremacy.

ps3, well, my friends say they should sell it as the cheapest blue ray player. also, it is going to have kh3 on it. if its exclusive then I'm gonna have to buy it poor wallet. But other then that, IDC

xbox, the halo fan base will keep it going, thats all i have to say about that.

and finally, last but not lease, Wii, I have heard many people say that someone told them that it wasn't that great, but i disagree. i love the Wii, and it also has many exclusive characters, and may have another, sonic, if they don't share him. but no mater what, i hope the Wii comes out on top.

 

[mushroomedmario]

i just don't think this guy is informed about the wii, he mentions animal crossing but not brawl?

i mean i have a friend that's getting a wii for animal crossing....but like 4 that are getting it for brawl

 

[WiitnessID]

Yeah these Analyst are failing to see what nintendo has done and they are only really looking at the hardcore base. Part of the problem is they don't realize how casual the PS brand had become with the PS2. The bulk of PS2 owners are not the ones who paid for it when it was 400 dollars. They got to this number with the current pricing and that along is the main reason it is still selling. Also what is forgotten is the fact that developers simply develop for the biggest user base period as this is a business based on sales. I believe the artist are behind betting on the HD horse right now since developers where hoping these guys would blow you all away yet forgot about next gen game play.

I mean really the PS2 did just fine while HL2 and doom3 and quake 4 came out on the PC and console gaming has alway done well with the powerful systems hovering above them. These guys and many fans of gaming forget this.

The fact that the Wii needs HD is totally wrong because the fact is gaming needs the Wii. Look at the numbers. We haven't even seen games from a true hardcore point of view yet.

These guys fail to see what the Wii is and the problems it addresses.

The Wii is a platform that makes fun ok again. It brings back addictive fun and widens that fun to a totally new and lapsed audience. The Wii IS selling with out HD graphic right now! This is not a fad this is social politics... read on!

And the biggest thing is moms and girl friends are cool with the Wii. Moms and girl friends and even wifes hate only games and the money that must be spent on them(thus they see it as foolish). Which is a male gamers main problem and also the reason why gaming did not grow. Yet once you draw them in to gaming you get some balance and an even larger user base. It was basically a boys club. Which was not good for business. Nintendo made it so that the having a Wii is a like being a good parent because they get to move around. Girl friends and wives love parties. The Wii has plenty of party games. Another thing too is nintendo has perfected a version of apple like art that is simply yet not too childish and very clean and high end looking.

Until the Hd system hit 250-300 for the top end versions we will continue to see this problem. Also too the games on the systems are actually shooting each other in the foot because the market is becoming too saturated and divided even though it is a smaller market simply due to the fact that less people are going to have HDtvs. On top of that the push for HDtvs in america may actual yield a solution for SD downscaling and upscaling as a standard for SD and HD tvs. The HD market is not going any where at the moment. It simply cost too much. they forget that cd and even dvd players did not need brand new components in order to experience them.


To me I'll be thinking about the new FF game and metal gear yet I have those on the PS2 and have not finished any of them. They simply got boring. I may like the most of you just sit back a watch vids of these games on the internet rather than spending so much money to buy them unless they are what I want in a game. I'm still a FF3-4 fan! Metal gear well it's cool and I love some of the art yet the game play gets on my nerves. Home is going to be pointless IMHO. It lacks user created content. Little big planet is coming out on the console that has people that believe mario is kiddy. How thats going to work is beyond me. Now a UT3 level editor would have been nice! Really the HD market will be more of the same and I think more games will actually sell less than what they should have because lots of people simply will loose interest are either get left behind due to cost.

Nintendo has retro, Kuju, and others thant have just finished games. Then you have Wii fit, brawl, no more heros, Vanillaware stuff, mario kart, all up until march it seems. Then animal crossing will come out in q4. Just because we don't know whats coming out doesn't mean there are no games coming. Nintendo has to hold stuff close to it's chest these days as the other guys will be quick to copy them on the software level.

DS will always be a gaming system and the extra function are just that extra...

The article has a negative slant because they don't understand the new market and why the old market was flawed unless you are making a halo or gears of war. As much as people say that nintendo set up their market for them selves you can say the same with the HD markets which needs huge amounts of marketing now that every one can make a game as detailed as gears.

The HD market is actually shrinking the market. With 200 million player out there why only 15-9 million buyers? I mean really they are not supply constraint. The Wii is the only system that you can show to normal people and they suddenly want one.

It's like the SUV effect really and it's here to stay. Once people see and SUV they want one. Suddenly you are ok with paying for more gas also...LOL
With the HD consoles there will be fights over watching HD tv and playing games since there is no reason why any one else other than the fans of the sequels will want to play. The HD part of thing is not helping either as it adds cost to the developer and the purchaser.

 

[super]

super smash bros brawl is coming out today

 

[WiitnessID]

super smash bros brawl is coming out today

Not in the US maybe japan?

 

[Big_League_Slugger]

2008 will be interesting.

I think Wii will start leveling out.

PS3 sales will get a lot better

360 as it is now will stay where it is if not drop.

Overall, at the end of the generation, I think the Wii or Wii2 and PS3 will be the battling for first while the 360 chills in third.

 

[jimbo]

^ i dont see the ps3 sales getting much bigger unless price cut

 

[wezeles]

ya ps3 is still a year behind 360 with the basically the same games and a higher price, and nintendo has the sales advantage on both of them...

ps3 needs a good price drop and huge marketing effort to stay in it... not to mention some good exclusive games... Even then i think the best sony can expect is to be fighting for second place this round

and they wont make a wii2 anytime soon.. even so that would be a different Gen system and it wouldn't count in this War...

Although if nintendo is the first to drop out of this gen atleast it would give the other 2 a fighting chance to take first place... "thats if they stop making wii when they move onto the next gen"

 

[Big_League_Slugger]

ya ps3 is still a year behind 360 with the basically the same games and a higher price, and nintendo has the sales advantage on both of them...

ps3 needs a good price drop and huge marketing effort to stay in it... not to mention some good exclusive games... Even then i think the best sony can expect is to be fighting for second place this round

and they wont make a wii2 anytime soon.. even so that would be a different Gen system and it wouldn't count in this War...

Although if nintendo is the first to drop out of this gen atleast it would give the other 2 a fighting chance to take first place... "thats if they stop making wii when they move onto the next gen"

PS3 has GOOD exclusives and have great ones on the way. Personally I don't think they need a price cut. $399 for a 40gb is a good price compared to the 360 pro. Plus a major difference between the 360 and PS3 is that the 360 uses standard dvd. Bluray gives you room to do more things.

Question about the wii is how long can it sustain its sales.

 

[T3kNi9e]

So far the amount of space of HD DVD compared to Blu-ray doesn't seem to affect Xbox so console specifics shouldn't even play a role in reality. PS3 will have good exclusives coming, thats whats going to boost their sales. That and $400 is more managable for people than $500. Though, you shouldn't praise the 40gig version to much. The biggest downfall when buying the 40gig that I had was you cannot play and PS2 games at all. To tell you the truth, getting rid of the 20gig for only $350 with backward compatability for a 40gig with no backward was stupid as hell. I ended up regretting waiting for a price drop for the PS3 cuz they stop production on 20 gig. I dont even need 40gig.

 

[smyth]

So far the amount of space of HD DVD compared to Blu-ray doesn't seem to affect Xbox so console specifics shouldn't even play a role in reality. PS3 will have good exclusives coming, thats whats going to boost their sales. That and $400 is more managable for people than $500. Though, you shouldn't praise the 40gig version to much. The biggest downfall when buying the 40gig that I had was you cannot play and PS2 games at all. To tell you the truth, getting rid of the 20gig for only $350 with backward compatability for a 40gig with no backward was stupid as hell. I ended up regretting waiting for a price drop for the PS3 cuz they stop production on 20 gig. I dont even need 40gig.

completely agree, i'll be getting PS3 for MGS4, most definitely, an although i don't need the bigger HDD i won't be getting the 40 gig due to the lack of backwards compatibility.... i don't know what they were thinking with that:wtf:


kyle

 

[Big_League_Slugger]

So far the amount of space of HD DVD compared to Blu-ray doesn't seem to affect Xbox so console specifics shouldn't even play a role in reality. PS3 will have good exclusives coming, thats whats going to boost their sales. That and $400 is more managable for people than $500. Though, you shouldn't praise the 40gig version to much. The biggest downfall when buying the 40gig that I had was you cannot play and PS2 games at all. To tell you the truth, getting rid of the 20gig for only $350 with backward compatability for a 40gig with no backward was stupid as hell. I ended up regretting waiting for a price drop for the PS3 cuz they stop production on 20 gig. I dont even need 40gig.

There games don't use HD-DVD's, correct? Maybe I'm wrong but I thought the 360 used standard DVD's for their games. Thats the big diffence standard DVD to Bluray.

As for the backwards compatability, I dont think its that big of a deal overall. People for the most part still have their PS2's and still use them.