'No Clear Winner in this Console War'

[cookiemonsta11111]

Thanks to GameSpot for this Article

Analyst: No clear winner in this console war

DFC Intelligence says Sony and Nintendo will be close, with Microsoft "probably a distant third."
By Brendan Sinclair, GameSpot
Posted Sep 28, 2007 2:12 pm PT

Halo 3 has finally arrived, and Microsoft is touting its sales success to anyone who will listen. However, one group of industry watchers doesn't believe it will be enough to help Microsoft "finish the fight" against rivals Sony and Nintendo.

DFC Intelligence has released its latest forecast of the industry. The firm suggested that this round of console wars won't have as clear a winner as in the past, but that the battle might result in Microsoft clearly bringing up the rear.

"Under DFC's best-case scenario for the Xbox 360, the system is in a virtual tie with both the Wii and the PlayStation 3," the analysts wrote. "However, unless the Xbox 360 can kick it into gear in the fourth quarter and through 2008, the system will probably finish in a fairly distant third. A big challenge for the Xbox 360 is building a base outside North America."

As for who will win the console race, DFC said the Wii "could be" the overall winner, but also predicted that the PS3 will hit its stride in 2009, and could finish "a strong second." The firm said that Sony might even bring in more software sales than Nintendo by 2012, even if its installed user base isn't as big.

According to DFC, the lack of a single dominant system in the industry isn't just a matter of Nintendo and Microsoft doing a better job of combating Sony with the Wii and Xbox 360 than they did with the GameCube and Xbox, respectively.

The analysts believe that the gaming arena outside of consoles is also growing, and as a result will keep any of the systems from achieving PlayStation 2-like dominance. According to the firm, PS2 software accounted for 30 percent of the entire gaming industry in 2004. For comparison, DFC is predicting that even the best-performing console between 2010 and 2012 will at most account for 15 percent of the overall industry.

"One of the fastest-growing segments of the interactive entertainment market is actually PC games," DFC's report noted, a fact that points to the platform as an ideal place for developers to try out new genres and business models. "The PC game business is expected to grow over 80 percent over the next five years."

URL: http://au.gamespot.com/news/6180072.html?tag=latestnews;title;1

What do you guys think of the topics raised?

 

[f1982]

What has been said there is exactly how i've seen the market going for ages.

PS3 is arguably punching a little ahead of itself at the moment. With future price drops, and further implementation of motion sensing technology, combined with ever improving online functionality, the PS3 will ultimately be the top console, and the last man standing.
The 360, although brilliant, will fall because it is stuck with HDDVD, which will be the lesser of the two HD formats, and because it is too limited in terms of capabilities.
Before anyone thinks im some sort of sony fanboy, please note that I own a 360 and a wii.
The wii is going to be dominant for the next year, but once the novelties of the controllers wear off, and games which rely purely on this novelty (such as smooth moves and cooking mama) are no longer popular, the playing field will be levelled.
PS3 will gradually assimilate the revolutionary control functionalities of the wii (because it is capable), and at that point the wii will die away and purely be a kids toy. At the end of the day, graphics and processor speeds will win out.
(being the cheapest bluray player out will help too)

 

[chessaholic]

Im quite happy to admit that i AM a "nintendo fanboy" here. Though i quite agree that the novelty will eventually wear off wit the wii remote. However, i dont think that means wii will be beaten by PS3. All nintendo need to do is to keep up with serious games. They still have a lot of unused charcters/ franchises that havnt even been mentioned for wii yet. I also wouldnt be surprised if they have another controller or something to bring out in a couple of years. We have already seen the balance board- and that i think will sell millions once all the casual wii owners see it. Nintendo do seem very confident at the moment, and it is unlike them to sit back and presume they have already won. It's pretty hard to tell who will win at this stage when all three companies are bound to have plans up their sleeves. But certainly do not put nintendo down. When i first saw the wii remote i didnt think it would outsell xbox360 in under a year.

But then, here we are.

 

[f1982]

/\
Your comments are true. The novelty of the wiimote will wear off. Imagine playing cooking mama or smooth moves with a joy pad, you'd laugh at the idea! The other crucial point is that PS3 has motion sensing built in. Therefore, there is nothing to stop them making (it would be a blatant copy, though I wouldnt complain) the 'PS Wand' a controller designed to point along the lines of the wiimote. The capabilities in terms of graphics and game involvement with high processor speeds and artificail intelligence will simply take the PS3/360 games into another league, and alot of wii owners will follow them there. However with the 360 being a bit behind PS3 in terms of functionality and also not having bluray, I'm sure will, in 2 years time make the PS3 the dominant console, with wii 2nd and 360 3rd.

 

[cookiemonsta11111]

There is nothing to stop them making (it would be a blatant copy, though I wouldnt complain) the 'PS Wand' a controller designed to point along the lines of the wiimote.

It hasn't stop them before.

The only Playstation product that has ever been slightly 'intuitive' was their incorporation of the Rumble feature on the PS1. All they have consistantly achieved over the years is repackaging other people's inventions/ideas and reselling them to the same audience, scamming companies out of sales.

 

[CantGetAWii]

Im quite happy to admit that i AM a "nintendo fanboy" here. Though i quite agree that the novelty will eventually wear off wit the wii remote. However, i dont think that means wii will be beaten by PS3. All nintendo need to do is to keep up with serious games. They still have a lot of unused charcters/ franchises that havnt even been mentioned for wii yet. I also wouldnt be surprised if they have another controller or something to bring out in a couple of years. We have already seen the balance board- and that i think will sell millions once all the casual wii owners see it. Nintendo do seem very confident at the moment, and it is unlike them to sit back and presume they have already won. It's pretty hard to tell who will win at this stage when all three companies are bound to have plans up their sleeves. But certainly do not put nintendo down. When i first saw the wii remote i didnt think it would outsell xbox360 in under a year.

But then, here we are.

You bring up pretty good points.
But what everyone has said here with the novelty wearing off on the Wii remote, I don't see that happening. Seriously, there is bound to be more party games that will keep those non-gamers satisfied, and with the recent success of the controls on Metroid Prime 3, there is no reason why the success can not be repeated, and I have a strong feeling that the success will repeat with the remote. Not to mention the Wii wheel coming out with Mario Kart should add more to that, as well as the WiiFit board, like you said, Nintendo is probably stirring up something else to do. And oh, yes I forgot about the Zapper. Although its simply an add-on, its an add-on that could make some of the shooting games coming out a lot better.

I personally like the releases Nintendo has coming for us, and I also like what the other systems are doing. Of course, I want to see the Wii pull off the victory, but its truly a good time to be a gamer. It will be very close near the end, and I am just excited to be able to play in these times.

 

[Trulen]

Now, hopefully reading this, people won't just pour all their support into ONE console.

Get two, or three if you've got the cash.

I've got, and plan to get a PS3 ;O
But PS3's cost money, yo o_o;

 

[sagema]

Recent sales records of Halo 3, and the Wii I'd say the winners are clear. Nintendo and Microsoft will probably be fighting over second place for all of 2008, by the end of 2008 one of these two will pull ahead and remain there. It's clear by now that Sony won't secure anything more than third place. If you factor in DS/PSP sales, that may be hard.

Both Nintendo and Microsoft have consoles sales that are over 3x higher than Sony. 12 million to 4 million is a hell of a gap. 2008 will decide it all. After that the numbers will simply be too high to change drastically.

 

[zapasant]

hmmmm, can someone explaine something to me, why does the article say that microsoft will come dead last? is it cause they wont come out with another series like halo in a while?

well back on topic, i think the article is correct, i think will make a stride towards 2009, but i belive that by then wii will already have a commanding lead......just my thought tho

 

[Blue Sun]

PS3 is my pick for the winner of this generation. Although its had a slow start, its really got some quality titles in the making. The Wii has got some great games as well, and if it continues to sell as well as it is then who knows. The 360 is IMO the best console at the present time. Three absolutely amazing FPS', but one genre alone can't guarantee you the best sales.

It will probably be the closest console war ever.

 

[Pikachu256]

Xbox360 is my pick after you experience Xbox Live you will never want to go back to Nintendo Online or Ps Online

 

[zapasant]

^^ online alone doesnt sell consoles, maybe a few, but not enough to give the 360 the win

 

[JAKE196]

well nintendo is obviously gonna win sales wise the wii is one of the (or THE) fastest selling console of all time.

And the DS is selling like crazy too. . .

 

[George]

Well Nintendo win sales wise.